Wednesday, December 10, 2008

Wild Speculations!



This 4.5% mortgage rate speculation is spreading like wildfire and fast taking on some of the characteristics of an “urban legend.” There are lobbyists who are trying to get mortgage rates lowered to 4.5%. As usual the press is being the press and getting people all stirred up when they don’t know anymore than we do. No one knows what will happen.

I had people call me yesterday with: 1) Rates are going to 4.5% on Monday and will be at 4.5% for a year and 2) All mortgage loans are going to be required to have 4.5% rates (even existing mortgages). I just don’t see either of those scenarios happening. It is possible if the Fed continues to buy the mortgage backed securities that we will see rates come down a bit more. I really don’t see them “posting” a mortgage rate of 4.5% and leaving it there. Rates this last 18 months have been wildly fluctuating. Until this most recent dip in rates the noticeable decreases in rate have basically been for a blink of an eye; increases in rate have been more predominate in the market this year.

Our Vice President of secondary marketing thinks that rates could drop; “could” being the key word. How much and for how long? Nobody knows. I would suggest selecting a realistic target rate and when it gets there lock it. Then quit shopping and don’t second guess your decision. I will even watch for that rate for you and let you know when we get it. You do need to be prepared to act quickly when your target rate is reached as there is no guarantee how long it will be around.

Not many folks are fortunate enough to truly hit the bottom of the market. After 30 years in the business I have never managed to get the lowest rate on my personal loan. Hitting the bottom of the market involves a lot of luck. The media does not know what is going to happen; the politicians do not know what is going to happen; I do not know what is going to happen. Anyone that is running around “predicting” what will happen to rates has a 50% chance of being right; they will definitely go up or down.

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This was written by my friend Terre Webb. I couldn’t say it any better myself so I used her quotes. With that said I will say that the rates today in the lower 5’s are fantastic. To see how that would affect your numbers let me know and the numbers I provide you will cost you nothing. I have closed my own refinance by the time you get this. That is how much I think the rate is going to come down more.

Also this is from Mortgage Market Guide a periodical we receive

The Fed has indicated that they would like to be a buyer of Mortgage Bonds, which has resulted in attractive, lower rates right now. But as stated above, the trading environment is extremely volatile, and opportunities to capitalize on lower rates that make sense should be taken advantage of. There have been recent rumors of interest rates being brought down towards 4.5% by the Treasury. This irresponsible release included no definitive plan, no indication of who might qualify, or what the restrictions would be. Like many other recent legislative "solutions", the restrictions might be very tight, with income limits set very low, and as a result, helping very few people. Remember, it may make sense for you to act now, and take advantage of current historically low rates...with the possibility of refinancing should rates decline further.

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