The Sky Is Not Falling

This week's post comes from the Cabot Wealth Advisory


July 25, 2011

Salem, Massachusetts
By Timothy Lutts


I don’t know about you, but I’m sick and tired of all this debt ceiling talk … the distortion of facts, the posturing and the brinksmanship. But that’s politics and I expect no less from the elected representatives of our oh-so-diverse country.


What bothers me more than that is the way the media is eating it up—even fanning the flames—by constructing terrible scenarios of what might happen if the debt ceiling isn’t raised.

What’s lacking is a rational voice.


So today I’ll provide it, by looking at this from a perspective most people haven’t considered.


We start back in 1999, when the whole world was preparing for the countdown to the new millennium, or Y2K. The big fear then was that computers that had been programmed to treat years as two digits might think we were back in 1900 when the calendar rolled over. And if those computers belonged to banks, airlines, electric and water utilities, etc., the resulting chaos, dubbed the Y2K crisis, might bring civilization to a standstill … at least until someone rebooted.


John Hamre, United States Deputy Secretary of Defense said, “The Y2K problem is the electronic equivalent of the El Niño and there will be nasty surprises around the globe.”


But nothing happened. There were a lot of parties, and life went on.


On a smaller scale, consider two weekends ago.


Residents of Los Angeles were warned that the Sepulveda Pass Improvement Project, in which 10 miles of normally congested highway were shut down for 53 hours, would result in massive gridlock. The potential nightmare was dubbed Carmegeddon.


Posie Carpenter, chief administrative officer of The UCLA Medical Center, said, “We see this as being a disaster—only it's a planned disaster."


But nothing happened. In fact, the construction project was completed in just 36 hours, 17 hours sooner than expected.


The similarities in both cases should be obvious.


There was a well-publicized threat. There were widespread warnings about the threat. There was wide-scale adaptation to the threat.


And as a result, there was little or no pain.


In fact, thanks to the Y2K threat, a lot of computers were updated, which provided a nice shot in the arm to the tech sector.


And in LA two weekends ago, a lot of folks walked, rode bikes or used public transportation, and if some of them stick with that alternate mode of transportation, everyone will benefit.


Coming back to the debt ceiling crisis, which still lacks a catchy nickname, I think we’ve had ample and widespread warning, and I see little chance that the parties in power won’t come up with a compromise before the time bell rings. But I also see that each party will refuse to compromise for as long as it thinks it can gain political advantage from doing so … which could be right up to the wire.


And what will be the advantage to us from this “avoided disaster?”


Ideally, a smaller deficit, and the start of a true trend toward an improved national balance sheet. I look forward to it.


I can’t avoid sticking this in here.


Concern Yourself Least When Others Fear Most


The corollary, by the way, is this: Trouble comes from where it’s least expected.


So what should you worry about? Well, if you live in Southern California, and are happy to have avoided Carmeggedon, I suggest you think hard about an earthquake. I recently spoke with a seismic geologist who’d recently relocated from Los Angeles to Boston, and he told me he’s very happy to be on solid ground.


I can be reached at 615-777-4663 or via email at George.Margrave@MIGonline.com

A Ray of Sunshine is Coming....

A ray of sunshine is coming. At least I think so if the President and Congress can get the debt limit extended. That will be because the media will start publishing some better figures. And that is because for a long time the reported housing statistics have been compared to the time period when we had the first time homebuyer’s tax credit. July will be the first month that we don’t have that comparison. And just maybe some of the other negatives will die down. I do know you can take advantage of the real estate close out sale to get a great value and finance it with a great interest rate. And contrary to what you hear, you don’t have to pay 20% down. With VA it is zero down, with FHA it is 3.5% down and with conventional it is 5% down.


Also the first time homebuyers don’t have to have any money. Call and ask me how YOU can buy a house.

You can reach me by phone at 615-777-4663 and via email at George.Margrave@MIGonline.com .

Here is some good Real Estate News

Forbes, in a study just completed with Praxis Strategy Group, projects Nashville to be the No. 3 boom town in the coming decade. That is out of the 52 top cities in the US. They looked at recent growth and demographic information like family formation and growth in educated migrants among other things. Forbes also wrote: “The country music capital, with its low housing prices and pro-business environment, has experienced rapid growth in educated migrants, where it ranks an impressive forth in term of percentage growth.”


Now this is the kind of news we need to show our potential homeowners. The values and market of the future may be very strong.



You can reach me via phone at 615-777-4663 or via email at George.Margrave@MIGonline.com

Laptop Safety

This is a little off the subject, but not really, since about all the Real Estate and Mortgage people I know live thru their laptops


Are you tired of having a trusty computer for work and pleasure? Do you relish the anxious insecurity of knowing a creeper somewhere could be browsing all your personal and corporate information? Or are you just tired of things going smoothly at work and want some thin ice to walk on for a bit? Then this post is for you!

There are a lot of ways to make sure your laptop gets stolen and all your files compromised. Not only can you lose your personal documents, applications, pictures and videos, but your company’s confidential, proprietary data and sensitive customer data as well! It’s easier than you would think to completely mess stuff up, lose hundreds of dollars and make things pretty miserable for yourself!

Here is our patented, six-step, surefire way to make sure your laptop gets stolen and all your hard work gets tossed out the window:

1. Leave your computer in your car in plain sight, like the front or back seats

2. Carry your laptop in an obvious “laptop bag”

3. In public places like coffee shops, leave your computer on the table when you get up

4. Don’t have a secure system login password

5. Don’t back up your important files once a week and before going on trips

6. Assume it’s safe and will not get stolen today

Protecting your computer can be a little like convincing yourself to floss. You know what you should do. But do you do it? The answer to that question is the difference between a major disaster and a minor setback.

From Claris networks

You can reach me at 615-777-4663 or via email at George.Margrave@migonline.com