The housing market has turned—at last.

The U.S. finally has moved beyond attention-grabbing predictions from housing "experts" that housing is bottoming. The numbers are now convincing.

Nearly seven years after the housing bubble burst, most indexes of house prices are bending up. "We finally saw some rising home prices," S&P's David Blitzer said a few weeks ago as he reported the first monthly increase in the slow-moving S&P/Case-Shiller house-price data after seven months of declines.

Nearly 10% more existing homes were sold in May than in the same month a year earlier, many purchased by investors who plan to rent them for now and sell them later, an important sign of an inflection point. In something of a surprise, the inventory of existing homes for sale has fallen close to the normal level of six months' worth despite all the foreclosed homes that lenders own. The fraction of homes that are vacant is at its lowest level since 2006.

The reduced inventory of unsold homes is key, says Mark Fleming, chief economist at CoreLogic, a housing data-analysis firm. For the past couple of years, house prices have risen in the spring and then slumped; the declining supply of houses for sale is reason to believe that won't happen again this year, he says.

Builders began work on 26% more single-family homes in May 2012 than the depressed levels of May 2011. The stock of unsold newly built homes is back to 2005 levels. In each of the past four quarters, housing construction has added to economic growth. In the first quarter, it accounted for 0.4 percentage points of the meager 1.9% growth rate.

"Even with the overall economy slowing," Wells Fargo Securities economists said, cautiously, in a note to clients, "the budding recovery in the housing market appears to be gradually gaining momentum."

Economists aren't always right, but on this at least they agree: A new Wall Street Journal survey of forecasters found 44 believe the housing market has reached its bottom; only three don't. (The full results of the Journal's July survey will be released at 2pm ET)

Housing is still far from healthy despite the Federal Reserve's efforts to resuscitate it by helping to push mortgage rates to extraordinary lows: 3.62% for a 30-year loan, according to Freddie Mac's latest survey. Single-family housing starts, though up, remain 60% below the 2002 pre-bubble pace. Americans' equity in homes is $2 trillion, or 25%, less than it was in 2002 and half what it was at the peak. More than one in every four mortgage borrowers still has a loan bigger than the value of the house, though rising home prices are reducing that fraction slowly.

Still, the upturn in housing is a milestone, a particularly welcome one amid a distressing dearth of jobs. For some time, housing has been one of the biggest causes of economic weakness. It has now—barely—moved to the plus side. "A little tail wind is a lot better than a headwind," says economist Chip Case, the "Case" in Case-Shiller.

From here on, housing is unlikely to drag the U.S. economy down further. It will instead reflect the strength or weakness of the overall economy: The more jobs, the more confident Americans are about keeping their jobs, the more they are willing to buy houses.

"Manufacturing had led growth and construction had lagged," JPMorgan Chase economists said last week."Now the roles are reversed: Manufacturing growth has slowed as private construction comes to life."

Plenty could go wrong. The biggest threat is a large shadow inventory of unsold homes, homes which owners won't put on the market because they are underwater, homes that will be foreclosed eventually and homes owned by lenders. They have been trickling onto the market, slowed in part by government efforts to delay foreclosures; a flood could reverse the recent rise in prices. Or the still-dysfunctional mortgage market could get worse. Or overly zealous regulators or a post-election change in government policy could unsettle mortgage lenders or home buyers.

But the housing bust is over.

Write to David Wessel at capital@wsj.com or you can contact me at george.margrave@migonline.com or via telephone at 615-777-4663.

Whew! Tax Day Was Yesterday!

Since tax day has passed, I feel compelled to advise those of you who are getting a tax refund and do not own a home a piece of free advice. That refund (on average $3000) can help you get into a new home of your own. The payment will likely be less than your present rent if you get a home of comparable size. You may not even have to use your refund, but even so you will probably need new drapes a new grill and will have moving expense. You may not have to use it because in spite of what you have heard on the media, you might get into a home for little to no cash. I am reading everywhere that the housing recovery is here. That will most certainly drive interest rates up.


Here is a surprising statistic. The P and I on $150,000 at 3.75% (today’s FHA rate) is $696. If rates go up 1% which is a good probability that same payment will only finance $133,300.

So it doesn’t pay to wait to see if prices might drop some.

These payments are Principal and Interest only, not the total payment. Call me at 777-4663 for details or email me at george.margrave@migonline.com . 

QUESTION: Property taxes too high?

ANSWER: We may be at the height of income tax season, but hoping you'll be getting a refund isn't the only thing you should be thinking about this time of year...especially if you're a homeowner. That's because the National Taxpayers Union (a nonprofit citizen group) estimates that between 30 and 60 percent of properties are assessed for too high of a value, resulting in an incorrectly larger property tax bill.


Taking the time to review your property tax bill could save you a nice chunk of change. And the good news is that submitting an appeal can be a fairly simple process, but make sure to take the time to fill out all forms in advance and be prepared with your documentation if there is an in-person hearing that needs to take place. To help you out, the National Taxpayers Union offers a checklist that walks you through some important steps in the process.

~~Mortgage Market Guide

If you have any questions that I can help with at this time, please call or email today. It will only take a few moments to discuss what's going in the markets and how it impacts your unique goals and situation.

You can reach me at 615-777-4663 or via email at George.Margrave@migonline.com .

Credit Inquiries and What They Mean

We get many questions about how many points are affected by a credit inquiry. This is a simple yet difficult question to answer. Let me explain. There are two types of inquiries that a person must take into consideration. Here is a look at both of them:


Soft Inquiries: These do not affect your credit score and thus you don’t have to worry about them. They are reported on your credit report which confuses many people. A soft inquiry, or “soft pull” as we refer to them, are harmless in nature. There are many examples. Here are a few:

1) You have a credit card and you see they have pulled your credit. This is done by your credit card company to see if you have missed paying any of your other financial obligations. If you have been late, this allows them to increase the interest rate on your credit card per your agreement! Very few people notice this when they open a credit line because they don’t read the agreement.

I know what you’re saying: what does a late payment on some other line of credit have to do with my payment history on this credit card? Yes it’s unfair but non-the-less reality.

2) Pulling your free annual credit reports at www.annualcreditreport.com. Again, these don’t affect your score and is something everyone should do once a year. The credit reports are free but you have to pay a fee if you want the score.

3) Lending institutions regularly pull your credit for “pre-approved” offers. You know the main culprits here—usually credit card companies that want your business.

4) A few other examples are when you apply for employment or by landlords for renting or leasing an apartment or a house.

Hard Inquiries: Ok, these are the only ones you have to worry about. When I talk to clients I make it simple by telling them if you apply or initiate an application for a vehicle, credit card, line of credit or a mortgage etc… then it is factored into your credit score.

From my experience many people get into trouble with inquiries when they are making purchases at major department stores or other large businesses. At checkout the clerk tells them they can get “15% off this purchase” if they apply for a credit card or line of credit with that business. Do not do this! Department store cards are not rated the same as major credit cards and the interest rates are usually much higher!

Finally, keep in mind hard inquires stay on your report for two years but are most often only factored into your score if they are within the last six months.



From Thomas McGee

By the way T-minus 12 on the increased MIP. Call me so I can help you avoid it.

You can reach me at 615-777-4663 or via email at george.margrave@migonline.com

Good news and bad news

I have told you about how HUD is raising the MIP for their borrowers after April 1. Actually the final letter says April 9th now, so we got a few more days. So If you are thinking of buying, you would save money by getting the transaction far enough along to order the FHA case number and appraisal by then. The countdown is T minus 26 days


Now the good news. People that currently have an FHA loan that was closed prior to the first part of 2009 (date to be determined) will be able to get a considerably lower MIP for their refinance. This will mean a big savings. So if I ran the numbers for you and it didn’t look very good, it is about to get a lot better. But we have to wait until June 11.


You can reach me at 615-777-4663 (HOME) or email me at George.Margrave@migonline.com .  

Housing Trends, First Time Homebuyers

Happy New Year, friends! We start 2012 with a look at first time home buyers. Where would they like to live? The results are in and it's no surprise that 78% said "near shops and services." The top 7 are listed here:


1. Shops and services (78%)

2. Their job (75%)

3. In a very good school district (66%)

4. Parks and other open spaces (61%)

5. Family and/or relatives (61%)

6. Restaurants, nightlife and other activities (51%)

7. Easy access to public transportation (45%)

Take a look at this infograph for more interesting information. Click here for an enlarged version.


~~From Tennessee Title

You can reach me at 615-777-4663 (HOME) or email me at George.Margrave@migonline.com . 

Housing News: 11 Trends from 2011

The National Association of Realtors® surveys homebuyers and sellers each year to uncover housing trends and monitor changes taking place in the industry. This year's report highlights a number of trends that haven't been seen in years. Here are just 11 highlights from the 2011 report.

1. In 2011, 37% of homebuyers were first-time buyers - which was down from 50% in 2010.

2. Last year, 88% of homebuyers used the Internet to search for a home. That number was down slightly from a high of 90% in 2009.

3. The typical homebuyer searched for 12 weeks and viewed 12 homes.

4. The number of buyers who purchased their home through a real estate agent or broker climbed to 89% - a share that has steadily increased from 69% in 2001.

5. Nearly 1 out of 4 buyers said the application and approval process was "somewhat more difficult" than expected…and 16% reported it was "much more difficult" than expected.

6. About half of home sellers traded up to a larger and more expensive home…and 60% traded up to a new home.

7. The top 3 factors influencing neighborhood choice were: the quality of the neighborhood, the convenience to job, and the overall affordability of homes.

8. The typical seller lived in their home for 9 years. That number has increased from 6 years in 2007.

9. Although 61% of sellers said they reduced their asking price at least once, the average home sold for 95% of the listing price.

10. Only 10% of sellers sold their homes without the assistance of a real estate agent. Of those people, 40% knew the buyer prior to the sale.

11. The typical "for sale by owner" home sold for $150,000 compared to $215,000 for the average agent-assisted home sale.

All Contents ©2012 The National Association of Realtors®.

Mortgage Market Guide

If you would like to talk and find out what we can offer you, please give me a call at 615-777-4663 or send me an email at George.Margrave@migonline.com.

What's the real cost of the payroll tax cut?

When you heard that our Federal Government had extended the tax cut and long term unemployment benefits for two months, you were probably glad. If you read on, you discovered that the two months were financed on the back of the Real Estate industry. (For 10 years!) Details are still sketchy, but from what I understand every FHA, Fannie Mae or Freddy Mac loan closed for 10 years will have a 10 basis point surcharge. (That is almost the equivalent of .125% increase in the rate of probably about 90 percent of the loans that will close in that period.) Now I ask you which industry does our country desperately need to turn around? That is right, the real estate industry! So why not raise their cost?


I am honestly wondering if anyone in either party has a clue what they are doing up there.

I'm just saying----.
You can reach me at 615-777-4663 (HOME) or email me at George.Margrave@migonline.com .

Protecting Your Identity

We take all the necessary steps to guard your personal information... and so should you. If your holiday plans include purchasing a new home, be sure to include protecting your identity as an item on your "making a list and checking it twice" agenda. The effects of identity theft can damage your credit rating and impair your ability to obtain financing.


While you're trekking through the malls or cruising websites looking for great holiday bargains, it may be difficult to remember that not everyone around you is as caught up in the holiday spirit as you are. Some of your fellow shoppers may actually be identity thieves looking to parlay the season's hustle and bustle into an opportunity to steal your personal information and, ultimately, your money.

According to the FTC.gov website, it is estimated that as many as 9 million Americans have their identities stolen each year. On average, it takes a victim an estimated $500 and 30 hours to resolve each incidence of identity theft. No one wants to lose that kind of money at any time of year, but those time and monetary costs can be even more stressful during the holidays.

"The holidays present a wealth of opportunity for identity thieves," says Heather Battison, TransUnion's senior director responsible for consumer education. "The hectic holiday season can potentially expose our personal information to theft in both high-tech ways like phishing scams, and in traditional ones, such as a stolen wallet or mail theft."

Proactive steps from TransUnion that may help minimize your exposure to identity theft during the holidays:

'Tis the Season...to Protect Your Identity

*Only carry essential documents with you; take your driver's license and the credit card or cards you intend to use that day. Do not carry your Social Security card, birth certificate or passport.

*Keep a close eye on your credit card bills. This is especially important during the holidays, when close attention can help you catch any charges you don't recognize on your statement.

*The holidays mean plenty of extra trash. Shred everything that contains personal, identifying information before throwing it out.

*When shopping online, look for businesses with websites that have some level of security measures in place to protect you. For example: before you provide any personal or payment information, look for a URL that begins with https (not http) and a lock emblem on the page, typically next to the address bar.

*Before you surf the net, consider changing your account passwords and keep a list of them in a secure place. Passwords and PIN numbers should be a random mix of letters, numbers and special characters, which makes it harder for identity thieves to guess.

Preventing identity theft is important year round and especially during the holidays. By taking steps to protect yourself, you can help ensure your holidays remain bright - and secure.

~From Foundation Title

Remember you can always reach me via email at george.margrave@migonline.com or on the phone at 615-777-4663.  Happy New Year!

Give the Gift of Charity this Holiday Season!

It's a Snap with THE GOOD CARD® - a Gift Card for Charity

Network for Good has a fresh angle on gifting this holiday season: The Good Card® - a gift card for charity - is perfect for everyone on your list. Good Cards have a stored value that can be redeemed as a donation to any of more than 1.2 million charities based in the US. Good Cards can be distributed via email or physical mail, or can be private labeled to meet your brand needs. Learn more at Network for Good.

A gift card for charity is an ideal reward for employees or thank you gift for customers and vendors that links their passion for a cause to your company's brand. A new study by researchers from Harvard Business School, the University of British Columbia and the University of Liege that was recently highlighted in the Washington Post confirms that a bonus employees get to spend on others is more motivating than a bonus they get to spend on themselves. A Good Card recipient can redeem their gift card as a donation to any of more than a million nonprofits, an easy way for employees to share their personal rewards with others.

Good Card purchases, including fees, are tax-deductible to your company and are a creative way to spend funds earmarked for philanthropy. In addition, because Good Card purchases are charitable donations, they do not fall under the IRS gift limit or policies around corporate gifts with cash value. Network for Good's charity gift card program is turn-key, customizable and easy to implement - even at the last minute. The program is recommended for any company looking to put a special spin on their gift-giving this year. What's more, the person GIVING the gift (i.e., the card purchaser) gets the benefit of a tax advantage for charitable donations as well.

The Good Card is a creative and constructive way to honor partners and prospects, friends and neighbors during the holiday season and throughout the year. Visit Network for Good for more details.

Remember you can always reach me at 615-777-4663 or via email at george.margrave@migonline.com
 
Thanks for reading and Happy Holidays!

Here is some good Real Estate News

Forbes, in a study just completed with Praxis Strategy Group, projects Nashville to be the No. 3 boom town in the coming decade. That is out of the 52 top cities in the US. They looked at recent growth and demographic information like family formation and growth in educated migrants among other things. Forbes also wrote: “The country music capital, with its low housing prices and pro-business environment, has experienced rapid growth in educated migrants, where it ranks an impressive forth in term of percentage growth.”


Now this is the kind of news we need to show our potential homeowners. The values and market of the future may be very strong.



You can reach me via phone at 615-777-4663 or via email at George.Margrave@MIGonline.com